United suspended two routes to India. Finnair has reduced its services in Asia. Japan’s All Nippon Airways suspended flights to London and Paris.
But despite these changes, which came as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, analysts say the need for airlines to avoid Russian airspace will not have a significant overall impact on commercial flights, particularly with regard to American passengers.
It’s annoying, something we can live without, but we’ll find solutions to it,” said John Grant, chief analyst at air travel data firm OAG.
Russia has blocked access to its airspace for airlines from 36 countries, including the United Kingdom, European Union countries and Canada. Additionally, airlines in many countries that are not among those 36 countries, including the United States, are avoiding Russian airspace out of caution.
But while moving away from such a massive extent of the air route would affect many routes between Europe and Asia, it would only be a major obstacle to US flights to a few destinations, most notably India, according to analysts. In addition, airline operations from the United States to several other markets where flight plans will be significantly affected, such as mainland China, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Seoul, South Korea, remain either due to Covid-related restrictions or have been suspended completely.
John Cox, a retired American Airlines captain who is now an airline industry consultant, stated that Chicago and Shanghai were the type of route that would have required flight path modifications to avoid Russian airspace. United and China Eastern traveled this route before Covid, but no airline currently serves the route. Likewise, there is currently no nonstop service between the United States and Hong Kong, even though six airlines operated in that market three years ago, serving a total of eight U.S. cities, according to Cirium’s flight schedule data.
However, the absence of Russian airspace as a flight path option already has some consequences for travelers and airlines alike, even for US service.
United has halted flights between San Francisco and Delhi and between Newark and Mumbai due to the challenges of operating those routes without flying over Russia. The airline continues to operate two more routes to India but with changing flight routes.
For example, instead of the usual polar flight path between Newark and Delhi, United now operates the flight almost on a straight line, south of Russia and through Saudi Arabia. The flight takes approximately 30 minutes longer than the Air India flight between Newark and Delhi because Air India continues to fly through Russian airspace.
Similarly, FlightAware data shows airlines are changing routes on some East Asian and US routes. For example, Korean Air flattened the Seoul and New York JFK flight path to stay in southeast Russia.
With US jet fuel prices at their highest levels since 2014, modest changes in flight plans may have a noticeable impact on airlines’ operating costs. But even among some European carriers, which generally have to change more routes than US airlines, the impact will be minimal, according to Lufthansa Group CEO Carsten Spohr. Spohr said during an earnings call on March 3 that higher fuel costs would be largely countered by savings in overflight fees charged by Russia.
However, not all airlines depart easily. Finnair said it would need to furlough at least 90 pilots and 150 cabin crew due to the suspension of its flights to Russia and Russian airspace. The carrier suspended services to Osaka, Japan and Hong Kong until at least late April, and also had to make fundamental changes to the itinerary to serve other Asia airlines.
Likewise, All Nippon did not fly to Tokyo-London or Tokyo-Paris last week and will maintain these suspensions until at least March 15.
But Cox said that for the most part, international travelers from the United States are not likely to experience significant difficulties connecting, even when passing through large European gates.
“If you’re flying on KLM, Lufthansa, British Airways, Iberia and Air France, you won’t see much of an effect,” he said.
