Business Roundtable Q1 CEO Economic Outlook Index: Slight decline amid global uncertainty; CEOs respond to historically high demand with strong hiring and investment plans
Washington – The Business Roundtable today released its First Quarter 2022 CEO Economic Outlook Survey, a composite index of CEOs’ plans for capital spending and employment and sales expectations over the next six months. The CEOs’ overall economic outlook index declined 9 points from last quarter to 115, but remains well above its long-term average.
The three subscripts were as follows:
- Hiring plans decreased 9 points to a value of 112.
- Capital investment plans decreased 9 points to a value of 106.
- Sales expectations decreased 10 points to a value of 125.
This quarter’s results fell from the previous quarter amid global economic uncertainty due to the escalating conflict in Ukraine and high inflation resulting from historic demand, supply challenges and global energy disruptions. To boost the economy in a period of heightened uncertainty, the Business Roundtable continues to urge policymakers to take action to address inflation and maintain a competitive political environment.
Mary Barra, Chairman and CEO of General Motors and Chair of the Business Roundtable, said: “Once again we find ourselves in unprecedented times both nationally and internationally. To support the economic strength and competitiveness of the US, we urge Congress to pass a bipartisan bill that includes CHIPS funding to increase US innovation leadership, help strengthen the US economy America and expand opportunity for all Americans.”
Joshua Bolten, CEO of the Business Roundtable, added: “As we navigate this period of uncertainty, it is important to strengthen the US economy by maintaining a competitive fiscal and regulatory environment. It’s also important for policymakers to address inflation risks by lowering tariffs and leading trade, opening new markets for US goods and services; promoting national energy production; and working with businesses and workers to address supply chain challenges.”
In their second estimate of US GDP growth for 2022, the CEOs projected 3.9% growth for the year.
About the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey
The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly since the fourth quarter of 2002, provides a forward-looking view of the economy from CEO members of the Business Roundtable. The survey is designed to provide a picture of the future direction of the US economy by asking CEOs to report their company’s sales expectations, capital investment and hiring plans over the next six months. The data is used to create the Business Roundtable’s CEO Economic Outlook Index and sub-indices for sales, capital spending and hiring. These indices are diffusion indices that range from -50 to 150, with readings of 50 or more indicating economic expansion and readings below 50 indicating economic contraction. A diffusion index is defined as the percentage of respondents who report that a measure will increase, minus the percentage who report that the measure will decrease. The diffusion indices here are then normalized by adding 50 to the result.
This quarter’s survey was in the field from February 22 to March 11, 2022. Overall, 175 CEOs completed the survey. The results of this and all previous surveys are available at brt.org/resources/ceo-survey.
