By FRANCES D’EMILIO, Associated Press
ROME (AP) — Poorer countries in North Africa, Asia and the Middle East that rely heavily on wheat imports are at risk of significant food security because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the conflict is about to drive up food prices, which are already skyrocketing in much of the world. the world, the UN food agency warned on Friday.
Ukraine and Russia, which is under heavy economic sanctions for invading its neighbor two weeks ago, account for a third of world grain exports.
Given that the intensity and duration of the conflict are uncertain, “potential disruptions to agricultural activities in these two major commodity exporters could seriously increase global food insecurity, when international food and input prices are already high and vulnerable,” said Qu Dongyu, general manager. of the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization.
The UN agency, known as the FAO, also pointed out that Russia is the leading producer of fertilizers and that a key component of fertilizers, urea, has tripled in price in the last 12 months.
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Also worrying, Qu said in a statement, is the uncertainty over whether Ukraine’s farmers will be able to harvest ready wheat in June. In Ukraine, “the massive displacement of the population has reduced the number of workers and agricultural workers. It would be difficult to access the agricultural fields,” Qu said.
Even if they could, Ukraine’s Black Sea ports are closed and its government this week banned the export of wheat, oats, millet, buckwheat and some other food products to prevent a crisis in its own country and stabilize the market.
Ukraine’s export ban does not apply to its main world supplies of maize and sunflower oil. Together with Russia, they represent 52% of the world export market for sunflower oil. They also account for 19% of the world’s supply of barley, 14% of wheat and 4% of corn.
“It is not yet clear whether (other) exporters could fill this gap,” Qu said, warning that wheat inventories are already running low in Canada.
The United States, Argentina and other wheat-producing nations are likely to limit exports as governments seek to secure domestic supplies, he said.
Adding to the pressure, countries dependent on wheat from Russia and Ukraine are likely to increase import levels. Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh and Iran buy 60% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Lebanon, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Pakistan are also heavily dependent on wheat exports from these two countries.
“Supply chain and logistics disruptions in Ukrainian and Russian grain and oilseed production and restrictions on Russian exports will have significant repercussions on food security,” Qu said.
The FAO warned that if the conflict triggers a “sudden and prolonged reduction” in food exports from Ukraine and Russia, it could further increase pressure on international commodity prices “to the detriment of economically vulnerable countries”. The UN agency said its simulations suggest “the global number of undernourished people could increase by between 8 million and 13 million” in 2022-2023, particularly in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa.
Shortfalls in grain and sunflower seed exports from Ukraine and Russia could only be partially offset by alternative sources, the FAO said.
“What is worrying is that the resulting global supply gap could push international food and feed prices up 8-22% above their already high levels,” the FAO report says.
According to figures from the FAO, food prices reached an all-time high in February. The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a huge impact on global food security, Qu said.
During 2021, world prices for wheat and barley increased by 31% and rapeseed and sunflower oil prices increased by more than 60%. Wheat prices have risen more than 50% since a week before the invasion.
Some consumers are already feeling the effects of a drop in exports, as well as high prices. In Italy, supermarkets in Tuscany and Sardinia are limiting sales of sunflower seed oil to two containers per customer, Italian state television said. Spanish supermarkets are also rationing sunflower oil.
While the Italian diet is associated with olive oil, sunflower oil is used commercially to produce mayonnaise, sauces, and some processed foods. Italian importers of seeds to be turned into oil say their supply has already run out.
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